Radio Kerry/Kerryman poll shows no change in Kerry north but battle looms in Kerry South

Jimmy Deenihan will top the poll in Kerry North, and the constituency is unlikely to see a change in representation after next week's General Election, however Kerry South is likely to witness an intense battle with a four way race for the final two seats. That's according to a joint Radio Kerry/ Kerryman newspaper opinion poll published this morning.

The poll was carried out across both constituencies on Friday and Saturday of last week.

The poll indicates a possible landslide victory for Fine Gael's Jimmy Deenihan in Kerry North. With 37% of first preferences votes, he would top the poll with a quota and a half and be elected on the first count.

He is followed by FF's Tom Mc Ellistrim who has 24% of first preferences votes, Sinn Fein's Martin Ferris 15%, Labour's Terry O Brien 10%, Norma Foley of FF 7%, Independents Sam Locke at 2.5% and Anthony Dineen 2%, David Grey of the Green Party 1.5%, and Independents Tom Donovan and Michael O'Connor both at 0.5%.

If this pattern was to be represented on polling day, it would see Tom Mc Ellistrim take the second seat, falling just short of a quota on the first count, and following transfers - a two way battle for the third seat between Martin Ferris and Terry O'Brien with Deputy Ferris pulling ahead to take the final seat. However the poll indicates that it is still all to play for in Kerry South. FF's John O'Donoghue topped the poll with 33% of first preference votes, meaning he would be elected comfortably of the first count.

He is followed by his running mate Tom Fleming at 14%, with Labour's Breda Moynihan Cronin, Independent Jackie Healy Rae and FG's Seamus Cosai Fitzgerald tied equally at just one point lower 13%. 9% of those polled indicated that they would give their first preference to FG's Tom Sheahan , 3% to Sinn Feins Lynn Ni Bhaoigheallain and 2% to John Hickey of the Greens.Transfers show that it is too close to call between Jackie Healy Rae, Breda Moynihan Cronin, Tom Fleming and Seamus Cosai Fitzgerald for the final two seats.

It is likely to take to the 7th or 8th counts to determine the outcome of the second and third seats, with margins of just between 1 and 2% separating the 4 candidates in the final determination. A huge factor influencing the intensity of this Kerry South battle is the fact that the poll shows a massive 10% of voters in the constituency are still undecided as to how they will cast their vote. This 10% of floating voters could determine South Kerry's final two TDS.

Further details and analysis of the opinion poll will be on broadcast on Radio Kerry, and can be found in today's edition of the Kerryman newspaper. The opinion poll was conducted in conjunction with the ITT.